Happy Super Bowl Week

Although I have been able to read the blog daily and I plan on contributing the best I can, school and work will more than likely prevent me from posting frequently. With that in mind I will try to make sure what I am able to write will be somewhat substantive and hopefully worth reading.
This week is, of course, Super Bowl Week and I am well aware that you will all be inundated with a plethora of articles, previews, matchups-to-watch and expert picks. Some will be insightful, others repetitive or obvious and some are guaranteed to be downright asinine.

Most of you are probably thinking, great, Log is going to write a stupid article about why the Steelers are so great and why they are going to win. Both of those statements are likely true, but neither will be the premise of my Super Bowl “preview”. I thought it would be beneficial to hear some thoughts from someone who has watched almost every Steelers game this year and read numerous articles about them. I have not watched too many Cardinals games, but as I’m sure everyone is aware, Ken Wisenhut used to be the OC in Pittsburgh, and so I think I know a thing or two how he operates as well. Here are a few key points that, in my mind, will determine who will win on Sunday. I’ll try to be as unbiased as possible.

Key #1
Arizona’s offensive packages and Steelers ability to adjust

This is what the Steelers should be afraid of. This was the last time they really got shit on by an opposing offense. How did it happen? New England basically decided to pass every play. They worked almost exclusively from a four wide-out set and ran a no-huddle offense, forcing the Steelers to keep the same personnel on the field. The biggest body, Casey Hampton, is a great run stopper but a very ineffective pass rusher and, more importantly, he is completely incapable of dropping into coverage (unlike the other two DL, which makes it possible to run zone blitzes). Essentially the Patriots were playing 11 on 10 and Pittsburgh got embarrassed. The Cardinals have not played out of a four wide-out set much this year but I think it is possible that Wisenhut to gives it a try. They definitely have the offense tools to do it. If they do and Tomlin/LeBeau don’t adjust by swapping fat-ass Hampton for a more versatile pass-rusher/pass-defender the Steelers will have a hard time stopping Warner et al and have a slim chance of winning.

Key #2
Darnell Dockett

I said I don’t know much about the Cardinals but I do know this guy is legit. He’s a little undersized but he makes up for it with speed and technique. He is sure to cause problems for a Pittsburgh OL that has been inconsistent in pass protection throughout the season. He’s going to get to Roethlisberger, that isn’t a question. The key will be how Ben deals with it (or the pressure from the rest of the Cardinals’ defense line that arises from Dockett being double teamed). Roethlisberger’s mobility and ability to evade pressure will help. But he must not be pressured into making ill-advised throws or fumbling. You’re probably thinking, “no shit, of course if he turns it over that is bad” but the reason I consider it a key to the game is because, while Arizona’s defense is not great, they do have the highest takeaway margin in the league this year, which can make up for a lot (see Cincinnati Bengals circa 2004/2005). If Pittsburgh doesn’t turn the ball over Arizona will have a difficult time even staying in the game, and neutralizing Darnell Dockett will go a long way toward making that a reality.

Key #3
Pittsburgh’s Offensive Play calling

Most people will find it mildly annoying to hear someone whose team is playing in the Super Bowl complain about their team’s coaches, but I am going to do it anyway. The Steelers have offensive talent. They have an established quarterback, talented receivers, two very good tight-ends and a running back who would have led the league in rushing last year if he hadn’t gotten hurt. Their offense line has been inconsistent but it is definitely not below average. What holds them back is simply the unimaginative and often haphazard way in which plays are called. For example, the Steelers are one of the worst teams in the league at converting fourth downs. Why? Because it seems as though every fourth and short they call the same play—off tackle plunge left. They are more likely to convert a third and long (when Roethlisberger usually has to improvise) than they are a third and short. OC Bruce Arians has refused to use I-form all season even though it is best suited for Parker’s running style (plenty of speed but often lacking vision). They continue to run two TE sets with tight ends who are average blockers and rarely throw to the second tight end.

To Bruce Arian’s credit, he called a much better game against the Ravens. But it was not without questionable decisions. Shotgun on third and one? Where was the play action to take advantage of the Raven’s over-aggressiveness? Too often this year the Steelers have relied on their defense to win the game for them. I’m convinced that if they didn’t have a quarterback with the ability to improvise like Roethlisberger, they wouldn’t have even made the playoffs. The Cardinals are going to score some points—they are too good of an offense not to. If Pittsburgh is going to win they will have to be competent on offense and score some points on their own.


So those are a few things to watch for come Sunday. I feel cautiously confident about the Steelers chances, even though Vegas has them as seven point favorites. I’m not making any predictions. On paper they are the better team, but as we all know, that usually doesn’t mean shit. I hope my preview wasn’t too Pittsburgh focused, and that you all enjoy the game—I think it will be a good one.